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Despite GDP Gains, Economy Still in Deep Distress

FEE Distress Index Shows Economy Still Weak

Despite GDP Gains, Economy Still in Deep Distress

For immediate release – October 29, 2009 (Irvington, New York) Despite a reported increase in GDP in Q3 of 2009, the overall economy remains in deep distress says the Foundation for Economic Education, publisher of the Distress Index. The Distress Index combines government statistics measuring inflation, unemployment, GDP, household debt and industrial capacity utilization. The current score is 58.4, down slightly from a peak of 61.7 in June, the highest since 1975.

Historical analysis shows some correlation between the index exceeding 47.0 and the economy slipping into recession. In March of 1975, the index reached an all-time high of 63.9, more than double the all-time low of 29.5 in February 1973. The index was lowest in the 1990s, averaging 40.1. But the last decade has shown a significant increase to an average of 46.6. Since President Obama took office, the index has averaged 60.3.

The Distress Index was created by Mount Olive College’s Dr. Paul Cwik and FEE’s Web Director Mike Van Winkle. It is intended as a modernized version of economist Arthur Okun’s Misery Index which measured only unemployment and inflation.

The Distress Index is a simple, uncontroversial, and nonpartisan diagnostic tool for the health of the economy.

The Distress Index also helps Americans interpret what the media and government are telling them about the economy. Professor Cwik says that while “politicians and candidates have an imperative to spin the numbers to stress their points, the strength of the index is that it is not attached to any particular agenda. This means that both the left and the right have to take notice, and neither can simply dismiss it as a partisan perspective.”

Van Winkle sees the index as a way to “give voice to the unemployed and overburdened taxpayers” and hopes the index will “keep pressure on policy makers and opinion leaders to make decisions that improve the economy rather than distressing it further.”

To learn more about the Distress Index, visit (http://fee.org/distress-index/) or contact Mike Van Winkle at (708) 289-3136 or mvanwinkle@fee.org.

About Paul Cwik:
Paul Cwik is an associate professor of economics at Mount Olive College. He holds a B.A. from Hillsdale College, an M.A. from Tulane University, and a Ph.D. from Auburn University. He has taught classes at several colleges and universities, including Auburn University, Campbell University, and Walsh College. His work has been published in academic journals that include The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, New Perspectives on Political Economy: A Bilingual Interdisciplinary Journal, and Business Ethics: A European Review. As an Austrian economist who is unafraid to use numbers, he specializes in econometrics and business cycle theory and is particularly interested in the blending of Austrian macroeconomics with finance.

About Mike Van Winkle:
Michael Van Winkle is Web Director for the Foundation for Economic Education. He received his M.A. in Social Sciences from the University of Chicago and has been published in the Chicago Tribune, the Chicago Sun-Times, and various online publications.

About the Foundation for Economic Education:
The Foundation for Economic Education (FEE) is a non-political, non-profit, tax-exempt educational foundation dedicated to the study and advancement of the “first principles” of freedom: the sanctity of private property, individual liberty, the rule of law, the free market, and the moral superiority of individual choice and responsibility over coercion. The Foundation’s periodicals, The Freeman: Ideas on Liberty, Notes from FEE, and In Brief (an e-commentary) offer timeless insights on the positive case for human liberty to thousands of people of all ages in America and around the world. FEE’s publications, lectures, programs, and seminars have been bringing individuals together to explore the foundations of free enterprise and constitutionally limited government since 1946.

6 Comments »

  1. This is an interesting index, but is it valid to compare with past decades when the definition by the government for unemployment, CPI, GDP have changed. By 1970′s terms would not unemployment be higher for example?

  2. “The Voice of Liberty” here (see website), and a long time fan of FEE. While your index might be useful for determining where we are today in terms of optimism, or lack thereof, I do not see it as useful for predicting trends. For example, the all time low occured in 1973, and the all-time high was just 2 yrs later. Hardly indicative of a forecasting tool. Also, it ignores that “good times” can be boughten with “funny money,” legalized counterfeiting that causes imbalances today that must be reconciled, liquidated sometime in the future. The ’90′s would be a good example of that. The much vaunted Clinton yrs ended when they opened the books on 2000 in Jan of 2001, and found a mountain of red ink. Even these figures were overstating income, as World Crossing, Tyco, and Enron funny bookkeeping had not yet come to light.

    See, it pays to get old so long as you can retain a bit of memory.

  3. Ken, I agree. We would not recommend this index be used to attempt to forecasting the coming economic conditions. Government policy can have a tremendous effect on the economy very quickly and I suspect that’s what happened in the 1970′s. This is more like a barometer. You can tell a storm is coming if it starts going up, but you don’t know what that storm is going to look like or how long it will last.

    And Dr. Steve, we chose only to go on government data so as to avoid the controversy involved in defining a new statistic. But this should not be construed as an endorsement of government stats. By all means feel free to modify this index with different methods of measure inflation, GDP, etc. It’d be interesting to see what you come up with.

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  6. I think this forecast is interesting but hopefully will shown to be premature…

    Just don’t get too bogged down in worrying about the economy. Keep a positive outlook always!

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